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--- man_or_bear [2025/04/09 16:40] – ultracomfy
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 The quick answer to this question: It depends on [[words|interpretation]].\\
-The general premise of this question is the tradeoff between certain death (bear) and less likely, but much more traumatizing death (if at all)(man). Women are afraid of being subjected rape and sexual assault/abuse and risking that is not always worth it if the alternative is a simple, quick, unprejudiced death to the local neighborhood bear. The idea is that far off of civilization, a woman is completely defenseless against a stronger male and therefore much more likely to get assaulted (or worse).\\
+The general premise of this question is the tradeoff between certain death (bear) and less likely, but much more traumatizing death (if at all)(man). Women are afraid of being subjected to rape and sexual assault/abuse and risking that is not always worth it if the alternative is a simple, quick, unprejudiced death to the local neighborhood bear. The idea is that far off of civilization, a woman is completely defenseless against a stronger male and therefore much more likely to get assaulted (or worse).\\
 \\
 From here on, this question becomes a matter of probabilities, and that set of probabilities depends on how we define some key terms of our equation.\\
-I will take the most direct example that can be inferred: We use the word "encounter" and we define civilization //strictly//. If you are genuinely far off of civilization then that means you are not on hiking trails. These trails are manmade and therefore an extension of civilization. Additionally, we define "encounter" as a genuine real-life event as it could genuinely unfold. What I mean with that is that, on the hiking trail, the most likely male person to "encounter" is just another hiker. If we took the question as "anywhere into a forest a woman would reasonably go", that would mean a hiking trail and there you are going to meet men all the time. To talk about this, we need to talk about men:
+We use the word "encounter" and for a moment we do //not// define civilization //strictly//. If you are genuinely far off of civilization, then that means you would not be on hiking trails. These trails are manmade and therefore an extension of civilization. But let's for now stay on trails. Additionally, we define "encounter" as a genuine real-life event as it could genuinely unfold, ie. two people meeting //naturally//. What I mean with that is that the man in question is not just randomly teleported there, the man in question is a man as you would naturally encounter them there((So to be clear, the reason I'm being so specific on this is because of the comparison to the teleportation, which is unnatural. I'm not trying to say that happening to encounter a rapist in the woods is unnatural (it would be 'unlikely', if anything), but that the method by which you meet needs to pass certain criteria. If a man set out to follow a woman into a forest just so he can do unthinkable things to her away from civilization would count that as a "natural" encounter here, as opposed to a man being teleported into the forest just for the sake of the thought experiment "Man or Bear".)). On a hiking trail, the most likely male person to naturally encounter is, well, another hiker. The problem with hikers is that they are unlikely to do anything serious to a woman. The majority of men aren't psychopath hawks circling and salivating over women who go out into the woods. Yes, most violent crime is committed by men, but most men do not commit violent crime, especially sex/gender-based violent crime.
+\\
+So, on that hiking trail, the pool of people you could naturally **encounter** contains, to the overwhelmingly large extent, mostly hikers. The number of serious //threats//, ie. men with genuine intent to hurt a woman (which //can// include some hikers), is going to be dwarfed by just how much more likely you are to encounter a normal, peaceful hiker. Uncomfortable and perhaps scary encounter, still, but the odds are in your favor.((At least in a one-off as posed by the question. If the question was about encountering 20 men, individually, like you might do on a hike, now that would be much more scary.))\\
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+\\
+The much more serious problem is when we go back to the original: "Away from civilization."\\
+This is how I think the question was originally meant, and it means that we are off the hiking trail and in the absolute wood of the wood. Now it becomes much harder to find people you could meet that //actually// are not threats. Maybe the ranger? A hunter maybe? And even they are still more likely than other men to be a genuine threat, so at this point I understand women who are beginning to calculate their odds and find their risk of getting violated is too high to justify.\\
+\\
+\\
+\\
+===== Other Understandings =====
+An interesting bit about social media trends is that they are the equivalent of word by mouth and get jumbled up in transit. The way it was first brought to my attention was with the wording "who would you rather be alone with in the woods - a random man or a bear". "Encounter" is already kind of nebulous and leaves lots to interpretation about how the man got there, but this one doesn't make any effort to answer that question at all and lets you fill in those gaps all on your own. My initial understanding of that for many years was that they kind of just get teleported there? Like, if the wording doesn't mention this then in my brain it felt like the way the man gets there doesn't really matter, so my brain just filled it in with "something, doesn't matter, magic, they're just there - teleportation".\\
+\\
+Now, in retrospect I can say this was quite a serious oversight and I just didn't think about it enough, but to be fair to me, I also did not have the original wording of the question. So, if a woman is alone in the woods, away from civilization and a random man drawn randomly from all of the world's population is teleported in front of her, this is a much better bet than having a bear teleported in front of her.\\
+\\
+The pool of people this roll can draw from is large and all but eliminates factors that would otherwise make you more likely to draw someone with hostile intent. The reason you would be less safe in the woods is because it attracts predators looking for defenseless victims, therefore inside that pool people with hostile intent will be over- or at least more represented. If you draw from a completely random pool, this overrepresentation vanishes, and you go back to the baseline, and the baseline is that most men do not have hostile intent to women ((Not like that, anyway. Obviously the patriarchy and misogyny exist and the intent to hurt women is there, just not in a way that is so much of a problem as to make my approach to the Man or Bear question problematic.)). In this setting where a random man is just teleported in front of the woman, it would be stochastically unwise to choose a bear instead.\\
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+I worry that this misunderstanding may be what causes a significant portion of the drama around this question. Most men responding to this question aren't psychopath hawks circling and salivating over women who go out into the woods; but these non-psychopath non-salivating non-hawks are also unlikely to "encounter" a woman in the forest in the first place. If it comes down to "encountering", you and I and the majority of non-hostile male people are not going to be the kind of person a woman would encounter in a forest. The people a woman might encounter in a forest are probably still part of the minority of non-hostile rangers, non-hostile hunters or non-hostile hikers, but that minority is now beginning to get worryingly small in comparison to the people who are actually dangerous.\\
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+Interestingly, if we just teleport any one random man then the woman might happen to find themselves in the forest with family or a domestic partner and - incidentally - this is the group that poses the greatest threat to any one woman. You'd rather be in the forest alone with a //random// man than with any one of your family members. That's one to take home for consideration.
+\\
+\\
+===== Bears and Hyperboles =====
+To be fair to bears - bears are gentlemen. With the exception of polar bears, bears mostly only attack humans out of defense/struggle for survival((read: when starving)), not as part of their predation. When given the opportunity, bears will typically bail, including the women offering themselves to them. Statistically speaking, you're probably fine in an encounter with a bear (unless you're stupid, too close or unlucky). Depending on the pool of people you choose to randomly draw from, odds are that your bear is still more likely to hurt you (in any capacity) than a man. However, as far as I understand this, the argument being levied with this thought experiment is not the actual probabilities.
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-A strange man is undeniably a threat.
+Like if you put a gun to a woman's head and said you must go alone into a room with a wild bear or a random man, I would think close to 100% of women would in reality actually choose the random man.
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-<WRAP centeralign>~Stephanie McNeal on [[https://www.glamour.com/story/what-does-choosing-the-bear-mean-all-about-this-simple-yet-profound-trend|Glamour - Choosing the Bear: All About This Simple Yet Profound TikTok Trend]]</WRAP>
+<WRAP centeralign>~[[https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/1cmax98/comment/l35wkf9/|u/dangerdee92 in "CMV: The bear-vs-man hypothesis does raise serious social issues but the argument itself is deeply flawed"]]((Though to be clear this example uses "random man" as the draw pool, not our more limited one.))</WRAP>
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-It's a words question, this one. How do we define threat? **Strictly speaking** we would have to define it as "a thing or person likely to cause harm". The problem with this is that men //are// more likely than others to cause harm, but they're still unlikely to do it. Because of that increased risk they may be //scary// or, if you want to, //threatening//, but not a //threat//. **Strictly speaking**, a non-venomous, herbivorous snake is not a threat even if we generally consider all snakes we don't know to be a threat. You could say that the snake is a "potential threat", in the same way that a man is more likely than others to be a "potential threat", but - **strictly speaking** - that isn't quite the same as being a threat.\\
-Why am I turning words like this? Well, I don't usually like chipping away at words but in this case it matters. In general we can agree that men are more likely than others to cause harm and this calculation for the Man or Bear question is about what pools of people we throw into the probability equations.\\
-\\
-Back to the "anywhere a woman would reasonably go into a forest" and talking about encountering hikers - the problem with hikers is that they are still unlikely to do anything serious to a woman. So, on that hiking trail, the pool of people you could //reasonably real-life event that could genuinely unfold// "encounter" contains, to the overwhelmingly large extend, mostly hikers. The number of serious //threats//, ie. men with genuine intent to hurt a woman (which //can// include hikers), is going to be dwarved by just how much more likely you are to encounter a normal, peaceful hiker. Uncomfortable and perhaps scary encounter, still, but the odds are in your favor.((At least in a one-off as posed by the question. If the question was about encountering 20 men, individually, like you might do on a hike, now that would be much more scary.))\\
-\\
-The much more serious problem is when we go back to the original: "Away from civilization."\\
-This means we are off the hiking trail and in the absolute wood of the wood. Now it becomes much harder to find people you could meet that are //not// threats. Maybe the ranger? A hunter maybe? And even they are still more likely than other men to be a genuine threat, so at this point I understand women who are beginning to calculate their odds and find their risk of getting violated is too high to justify.\\
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-\\
-===== Other Understandings =====
-An interesting bit about social media trend is that they are the equivalent of word by mouth and get jumbled up in transit. The way it was first brought to my attention was with the wording "who would you rather be alone with in the woods - a random man or a bear". "Encounter" is already kind of nebulous and leaves lots to interpretation about how the man got there, but this one doesn't make any effort to answer that question at all and lets you fill in those gaps all on your own. My initial understanding of that for many years was that they kind of just get teleported there? Like, if the wording doesn't mention this then in my brain it felt like the way the man gets there doesn't really matter, so my brain just filled it in with "something, doesn't matter, magic, they're just there - teleportation".\\
-\\
-Now, in retrospect I can say this was quite a serious oversight and I just didn't think about it enough, but to be fair to me I also did not have the original wording of the question. So, if a woman is alone in the woods, away from civilization and a random man drawn randomly from all of the world's population is teleported in front of her, this is a much better bet than having a bear teleported in front of her.\\
-\\
-The pool of people this roll can draw from is large and all but eliminates factors that would otherwise make you more likely to draw someone with hostile intent. The reason you would be less safe in woods is because it attracts predators looking for defenseless victims, therefore inside that pool people with hostile intent will be over- or at least more represented. If you draw from a completely random pool, this overrepresentation vanishes and you go back to the baseline, and the baseline is that most men do not have hostile intent to women ((Not like that, anyway. Obviously the patriarchy and misogyny exist and the intent to hurt women is there, just not in a way that is so much of a problem as to make my approach to the Man or Bear question problematic.)). In this setting where a random man is just teleported in front of the woman, it would be stochastically unwise to choose a bear instead.\\
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-I worry that this misunderstanding may be what causes a significant portion of the drama around this question. Most men responding to this question think that they wouldn't hurt a woman in the forest, but they also wouldn't "encounter" a woman in the forest in the first place. If it comes down to "encountering", you and I and the majority of non-hostile male people are not going to be the kind of person a woman would encounter in a forest. This doesn't mean that - depending on where in the forest the woman is - the woman is still more likely to encounter the minority of non-hostile male people (hikers, rangers, hunters, etc.) than to encounter a hostile person, but it's still very, very different.\\
-\\
-Uh, word of caution, actually: Rangers and hunters will probably be scary to many women because rangers and hunters may seem like perfect fits for (serial) murderers or rapists/etc., but I don't think this logic actually follows that well? Like, we know who and where our rangers and hunters are, and in case of a murder they will be the absolutely first people to get asked by police because they're the people we expect nearby the crime scene. This is why //truckers// are actually the ones overrepresented in murder statistics like that.\\
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+It seems to be that the argument is an expression of significant (and justified) fear more than an actual deliberation of statistics. Personally, I'm not exactly sure where this is intended to go? Like, the correct answer lies in the statistics. Either you are more likely to get harmed by a man or not, and then you can throw in a bit of [[personal preference]] about just how much you think you would hate getting sexually traumatized, and come to your conclusion. There is no debate here, and men are aware that women are afraid of them. Men don't need to be told that they scare women - there is nothing useful a man can say about this, so to them this discussion will invariably become about statistics.\\
 \\
-Interestingly, if we just teleport any one random man then the woman might happen to find themselves in the forest with family or a domestic partner and - incidentally - this is the group that poses the greatest threat to any one woman. You'd rather be in the forest alone with a random man than with any one of your family members. That's one to take home for consideration.
+Obviously, some [[misogyny|misogynists]] do like to hijack this argument and talk about how either 1) women are irrational about men and bears or that 2) gender-based violence isn't a thing (or that men are the actual victims). This is spurious. Women are disproportionately victimized and are justified in their fear.